Conference Semis Series Prediction

Conference Semis Series Predictions

Blayne Kessler

Heat vs Sixers

After putting the brakes on what was turning into an epic collapse, the Sixers have a much harder challenge this round considering the injury status of MVP Candidate Joel Embiid. After suffering a mild concussion and a right orbital fracture in the closing minutes of game 6, he’s currently listed as out indefinitely. With that news, the Sixers chances of winning become much slimmer, especially considering the depth behind Embiid being subpar. Jimmy Butler should be guarding Harden, so I don’t think it would be wise to expect good, efficient scoring out of James, but his playmaking skills are always something hard to gameplan against. Something I haven’t loved all season is the Heat’s half-court offense, but in this series I don’t hold much concern about it considering that without Embiid, the Sixers defensive rating clocks in at 115.1, 27th in the league only above Indiana, Portland, and Houston. The x-factor in this series could be Tyrese Maxey. If he has a great series and can pick up some of the scoring left by the Embiid void, I can see the Sixers putting up a fight but I wouldn’t trust Maxey just yet as he’s still young and was inconsistent against Toronto. If Harden and Maxey can outperform expectations, the Sixers may have a long shot, but without Embiid I don’t see them putting up much of a fight.

Prediction: Heat in 5

Celtics vs. Bucks

After a much hyped first round series turned out to be one sided in favor of the Celtics, I have a hard time seeing this series follow suit. While the Celtics were able to completely shut down Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo is much more physical and overpowering than KD. The Celtics don’t have anyone that matches up perfectly with Giannis (then again, who does), but can throw so many different types of defenders at him that will not allow him to get comfortable. Middleton being out is a key component to this series as well, and without him the Bucks do lose a key component to their offense. I also expect Jrue Holiday to have a subpar offensive series with the types of defenders the Celtics have too, so I expect a lot of the scoring output for the Bucks to come on the shoulders of Giannis. On the other side, Tatum at this point has shown he can be the best player on the court in any series, and the duel between him and Giannis should be fascinating to watch. Jaylen Brown is the x-factor I believe, as his secondary scoring next to Tatum could prove to be the key if the Giannis-Tatum duel comes to a wash. The Celtics have a better team, but it’s hard to bet against Giannis at this point in his career so this is a hard series to predict. The game where the Bucks sat their starters could end up proving to be huge in this series, as they essentially handed Boston the game 7 at home, which i think is what this series would have come down to on either side. Definitely the series to watch.

Prediction: Celtics in 7

Suns vs. Mavericks

The Pelicans were able to make things interesting against the Suns, but overall I’m still not all that worried about the Suns. Not only was Devin Booker out during more than half of the series, the Pelicans were clearly more talented than their seed would suggest. The Mavericks on the other hand were able to dispose of the Jazz in 6 games and heavily outplayed them all series, but more because of the Jazz ineptitude than anything. The Suns won all three games versus the Mavericks during the regular season, but two of those were early season and can be discarded as Luka Doncic was out as well. The Suns have an overall better, deeper team, and the Mavericks simply cannot afford to make mistakes if they want to have a chance in this one. It should be stated, however, the ability of Doncic to just go off and be best player on the court every night can make any series interesting as well. A captivating x-factor in this series could be Mikal Bridges, who will most likely get the Luka Doncic assignment. His offense keeps improving, and while Luka will no doubt get his numbers, if Bridges can at least slow him down and make him inefficient, I like the Suns chances. The series should be competitive, but at the end of the day I trust Chris Paul to control the games and lead the Suns to victory.

Prediction: Suns in 6

Grizzlies vs Warriors

The Grizzlies gutted out a victory in Minnesota, coming back from double digit 4th quarter deficits multiple times to outlast the Timberwolves in 6. Many people after that series seem to be concerned about Ja and his level of play in the series, but personally I’m not too worried. I think that Minnesota posed a bad defensive matchup for him, and even while his shooting numbers were down, I was very impressed by him not forcing the issue when he didn’t have it going and his ability to playmake out of doubles when Minnesota threw them at him. Desmond Bane had a great series, improving as it went on, and finished averaging 23.5 points including a huge 34 point game in game four. A wild stat on Bane: he had a positive plus minus in every game except the game 1 loss, where he was dead even, and finished the series averaging a +11. If he can continue playing as good as he did, the Grizzlies have a legitimate shot to steal. Meanwhile the Warriors come in after a series where they started off very strong, looking like Finals favorites for a couple games before slowing down and beating the Nuggets in 5 with a few close games at the end. Poole started the series great but trailed off at the end, finishing with two 3 for 10 games during the last two games of the series. Klay overall had a good series but it still remains to be seen if he can be relied on consistently on offense and is clearly not who he was on defense before his injuries. Still, despite all that, the Warriors have the best player in the series, and much more experience when it comes to the playoffs. The Grizzlies would be a sneaky upset pick, but I think the Warriors are able to close it out at home in 6 games.

Prediction: Warriors in 6